AGP Executive Report

Counterterrorism in Syria: Syria’s Interior Ministry says it arrested 235 ISIS operatives over three months, disrupting seven planned attacks across Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Deir ez-Zor, seizing explosives, weapons, vehicles and electronics. Israel-Syria border pressure: In Daraa, Israeli forces reportedly advanced toward Maariya village and fired at farmers working their fields, forcing them to flee; no injuries were reported. Iran-US talks ripple across the region: US President Trump says a US-Iran peace deal is “scheduled to be signed” Sunday and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “to all,” while Iran’s foreign ministry says no signing will happen on Sunday. Syria’s return movement: UNHCR reports about 1.3 million UN-registered refugees returned to Syria in 2025, bringing the total to 4.9 million, as Damascus encourages “voluntary” returns amid recovery efforts. Regional security backdrop: A new PRIO study says state-based armed conflicts hit 65 in 2025, the highest since WWII, with the Middle East among the hardest hit.

US-Iran Peace Track: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif says Washington and Tehran have agreed “final, agreed upon text” for an end to their war, with mediators now working on next steps; Iran’s Abbas Araghchi says the deal is “never been closer,” while Tehran insists nuclear details come later and Lebanon is covered in the first stage. Israel’s Posture in Syria: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israeli forces will not withdraw from “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, as the Arab Group at the UN urges Israel to pull out of occupied Syrian territory. Quneitra Incursion: An Israeli patrol reportedly advanced into Kodna in Quneitra, raiding homes amid drone overflights and heightened alert. Lebanon File in Focus: Damascus’ Ahmed al-Sharaa denies any intention to intervene in Lebanon, despite US talk of possible Syrian help against Hezbollah. EU Migration Rules: The EU Migration Pact enters force, tightening screening and fast-tracking asylum procedures—an issue that will shape regional flows affecting Syrians. Damascus Life: A World Cup festival at Damascus Fairgrounds brings public match screenings and music, offering a rare pocket of unity amid hardship.

US-Iran Deal Talks: Pakistan says the US and Iran have agreed on the “final, agreed upon text” for a war-ending deal, while Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi says an agreement is “never been closer,” as Trump disputes leaked terms and calls Iranians “very dishonorable.” Israel’s Red Lines: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel won’t withdraw from “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, even as diplomacy advances. Syria’s Lebanon Position: Damascus’ al-Sharaa denies any Syrian military intervention in Lebanon, saying the priority is ending the war and addressing Lebanon’s roughly 1.4 million Syrian refugees. Regional Pressure on Ankara: Erdogan warns the region is paying a “heavy economic price” for attacks on Iran and says Israel’s actions threaten Turkey. Syrian Accountability: Syria arrests an Assad-era State Security deputy chief over alleged civilian abuses in Damascus countryside and Daraa. EU Migration Shift: A new EU asylum overhaul enters force, tightening returns and detention rules, with Syria listed among “safe” destinations. Global Conflict Snapshot: A PRIO report says state-based armed conflicts hit a record 65 in 2025, with the Middle East among the hardest hit.

Southern Syria Frontline: Israeli forces reportedly entered Quneitra countryside and set up temporary checkpoints, stopping vehicles and checking IDs around the Al-Rafid–Al-Hiran road, with the patrol withdrawing after hours. Local Disruption in Daraa: Another report says Israeli troops stormed Ma’ariya and al-Arda in western Daraa, establishing positions near access points and searching vehicles, disrupting civilian movement. Russia–Damascus Military Talks: Moscow says it is discussing with Damascus a possible restructuring of its remaining military facilities in Syria, focused on Hmeimim and Tartous. Diplomacy Signals: France’s Macron reiterated support for an “inclusive Syria” that protects the rights of all components, while coordinating with the U.S. on regional stability. UNHCR Returns Watch: UNHCR reports 1.3 million Syrians returned in 2025, but warns most face destroyed infrastructure, insecurity, and shortages. Regional Connectivity Push: Türkiye, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia move ahead on reviving the Hejaz railway corridor, aiming to link Saudi Arabia to Türkiye via the region. Economy & Work: Labor unrest spreads in Rural Damascus as workers at Zenobia Ceramic and Madar Detergent press coordinated strikes over wages and conditions.

Israeli Incursions in Daraa: Israeli occupation forces stormed Ma’ariya and Al-Arda in the Yarmouk Basin of western Daraa, setting up checkpoints and obstructing residents’ movement with repeated vehicle searches. Iraq–Damascus Coordination: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi sent a message to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa urging tighter security and economic coordination as Baghdad moves to rebuild regional ties. Syria Cybersecurity Probe: Syria launched an investigation after leaked Foreign Ministry documents from the post-2024 transitional era spread online via a Telegram channel, with authorities promising to assess scope and tighten information security. U.S.–Iran Escalation Spillover: The wider Iran crisis keeps tightening the region, with the U.S. signaling it may pursue a nuclear deal with Iran without Israeli approval while strikes and threats continue to ripple across Syria and neighboring corridors. Humanitarian Aid Routes: Armenia approved sending humanitarian aid to Lebanon via Türkiye, using the Margara checkpoint (opened June 12–22), underscoring how border access still shapes relief delivery. UN Displacement Update: UNHCR reported global forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade, but Syria remains a major driver of returns amid ongoing insecurity.

U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Shift: The Trump administration says it will pursue a nuclear deal with Iran even if Israel objects, with Vice President JD Vance stressing U.S. talks will follow Washington’s national security interests. Middle East Fallout: The change comes amid renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and wider regional instability, as Syria again faces spillover risks from the Lebanon-Iran-Israel confrontation. Damascus & Quneitra: Syrian sources report Israeli forces assaulted shepherds and property in Quneitra’s countryside, including an incident west of Sida al-Hanout. Displacement Watch: UNHCR and the UN report a first drop in global forced displacement in a decade, but long-term crises persist; Syria remains among the main return destinations, often under unsafe conditions. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey’s Erdogan warned Israel’s attacks on Syria and Lebanon now threaten Türkiye, saying Ankara’s security extends to Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Shift: Vice President JD Vance says Washington will pursue a nuclear agreement with Iran based on U.S. interests, even if Israel objects, after months of escalation tied to strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and retaliations. Syria-Russia Military Footprint: Russia says it is discussing a “reformatting” of how its Tartous and Hmeimim facilities function, signaling continued presence rather than withdrawal. Turkey Warns Israel Over Syria/Lebanon: Erdogan told parliament Israel’s attacks on Syria and Lebanon now threaten Türkiye and must be stopped, warning of a “clear and strong” response if Turkish rights in the eastern Mediterranean are targeted. Regional Escalation Watch: Saudi Arabia condemned alleged Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan as violations of sovereignty, while Trump warned he may hit Iranian power plants and bridges if talks fail. Damascus Economy & Trade: Syria and Türkiye are set to discuss trade and investment in Gaziantep, as Ankara pushes deeper economic integration. ISIS Security Crackdown: Syria says it detained 235 ISIS suspects and foiled attacks in a 90-day crackdown.

US-Iran Escalation: Iran’s IRGC claimed drone and missile attacks on US military sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, with details unverified by Washington. Syria Energy Push: Syria’s energy minister told a Washington forum the country is positioning itself as a “vital regional hub,” announcing partnerships with major firms and a $7bn Qatar-backed investment plan spanning electricity, infrastructure and renewables. US Lebanon Signal: Trump said Syria could help counter Hezbollah in Lebanon with “more surgical” action, reviving fears of renewed Syrian involvement despite Damascus silence. Dam Safety Update: Syria shut the final Euphrates Dam spillway gates after two weeks of flooding relief, as releases returned toward normal and recovery work continues. Local Pressure: Workers staged strikes in Damascus countryside factories (Zenobia Ceramics, Madar) demanding higher wages and better conditions, while protests also spread in parts of north and east Syria. Regional Economy: Türkiye and Syria agreed to let Turkish banks open branches in Syria, alongside plans to expand trade and reopen the İslahiye border crossing.

U.S.-Syria Escalation: The U.S. carried out a massive late-Friday wave of airstrikes on Syria—over 125 precision munitions—while critics describe it as costly “political theater” aimed more at messaging than results. Quneitra Raid: Israeli forces arrested a young man in Umm al-Luqs farm during a raid and search in Quneitra, and also reportedly beat children and confiscated phones near Rafid. Damascus Airport Disruptions: Syria’s airspace and Damascus airport operations have been repeatedly suspended or rerouted amid the wider Israel-Iran confrontation. Turkey-Syria Economic Push: Türkiye and Syria moved to deepen ties with plans for Turkish banks to open in Syria and broader trade/investment cooperation, while Türkiye also highlighted the Aleppo-Idlib area for investment. Regional Energy Talks: Egypt urged renewed discussions on Palestinian offshore gas, framing it as a path to jobs and recovery for Gaza and the West Bank. Food Security Data: Syria’s 2026 Household Food Security Assessment Survey is set to begin June 27, with fieldwork running 35 days. Kurdish Tensions in Turkey: Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party announced rallies demanding Abdullah Öcalan’s release, including events in Van, Mersin, Diyarbakır, and İstanbul. Global Conflict Warning: A new PRIO report says 2025 saw the highest number of state conflicts since WWII, with civilian attacks rising sharply.

U.S.-Syria Transition Watch: The U.S. said Syria’s new interim authorities must be inclusive and representative, reject terrorism, bar foreign fighters from official roles, stop Iran and its proxies from exploiting Syrian territory, take verifiable steps to dismantle the former regime’s chemical weapons arsenal, and help clarify the fate of missing Americans and other foreign nationals. Southern Syria Security: Israeli forces advanced in the Yarmouk Basin of western Daraa and carried out incursions in Quneitra, with reports of gunfire toward farmlands and raids that included detentions of children and confiscation of phones. Hasakah Protests: Residents in southern Hasakah staged demonstrations over deteriorating living conditions, fuel prices, electricity shortages, and lack of jobs, including road blockages in al-Hawl and Ghazila. Foreign Fighters Question for Damascus: A statement by Uzbek-origin fighters criticized the new Syrian government and highlighted the looming challenge of what to do with thousands of non-Syrian combatants after the Assad era. Regional Airspace Disruption: After Iran-Israel missile exchanges, aviation across Syria, Iraq, and the region faced restrictions and diversions, with Syria’s airspace reported closed while Iraq reopened parts of its routes.

Iran–Israel Ceasefire Jitters: Iran and Israel halted direct attacks after Trump urged them to “stop shooting,” but Netanyahu warned strikes would resume “with force” if Iran attacks again, leaving the region on edge. Lebanon Front: Israel said it will keep operating against Hezbollah and strike Beirut if attacked, while Iran insists Lebanon must be part of any talks—making a “ceasefire within the ceasefire” fragile. Syria Airspace Disruptions: Syria extended precautionary closure of southern air corridors and kept Damascus Airport suspended until late Monday, with flights rerouted; airlines adjusted schedules across the region. Humanitarian Pressure: The IRC warned the Iran war is accelerating displacement, worsening food insecurity, and disrupting aid operations. Damascus–Cairo Diplomacy: Syria nominated envoy Yahya Diab as ambassador to Egypt, aiming to normalize ties after months of uncertainty. Security Snapshot: The Syrian Observatory reported 222 deaths in criminal incidents since the start of 2026, citing rising poverty, weapons access, and revenge violence. Local Life: Ayman Hlal, a leading Syrian violinist now based in Berlin, won a Bagri Music Award and is set for performances in the UK.

Iran-Israel Escalation: Iran fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire, triggering sirens across northern and central areas; Israel intercepted the barrage but then struck back with airstrikes on western and central Iran, defying US calls for restraint. Regional Airspace Disruptions: As the crisis spread, Syria shut its southern air corridors for 12 hours and suspended Damascus airport operations, while Iraq also closed airspace—moves aimed at keeping flights safe amid missile risk. Lebanon Trigger: The exchange followed Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs tied to Hezbollah, with Iran framing its action as retaliation and warning of broader consequences if attacks continue. Damascus Security File: Syria arrested two former Assad-era officials accused of war crimes and massacres, including allegations tied to operations in Aleppo and Hama. Foreign Fighters Question: A new report highlights how Damascus is struggling to manage and integrate non-Syrian combatants after the war, as armed networks resist being dismantled. Türkiye-Syria Trade: A Gaziantep-Aleppo summit in Gaziantep will push new trade and logistics links between Türkiye and Syria, with officials discussing border production zones. Sports Disruption: Bahrain’s friendly against Syria was called off due to travel restrictions.

Israeli Incursions in Quneitra: Syrian monitoring groups say Israeli forces kidnapped five civilians, including two minors, during early-Sunday raids in Quneitra, while also restricting access to farmland near the occupied Golan. War-Crimes Arrests in Syria: Syria’s Interior Ministry announced the arrest of a former Assad-era commander in Hama over alleged war crimes and abuses, including mutilation of victims, as security forces continue a broader push to locate hidden weapons. Asayish Integration: In northeastern Syria, Asayish officers began integration into the Interior Ministry, with initial interviews for 100 officers and plans for broader security restructuring in Hasakah. Diplomacy and Mediation: Qatar’s foreign ministry said it discussed Syria-U.S.-Iran mediation with Syrian FM Asaad Al Shaibani, stressing support for Syria’s sovereignty and unity. Regional Context—Iran War Pressure: Trump reiterated he could resume force against Iran if talks fail and called for more “surgical” strikes on Hezbollah, keeping Lebanon and Syria tied to wider escalation risks. Humanitarian Note: Qatar Red Crescent’s Eid al-Adha campaign reported reaching 247,344 beneficiaries across Syria and other countries.

Southern Syria Incursions: Israeli forces entered two villages in Quneitra on Saturday, detaining a civilian and searching homes, in a second incursion within 24 hours, according to Syrian state media. War Crimes Case: Syria’s Interior Ministry says it arrested former Assad-era commander Shuaib Mahmoud Ibrahim in Hama on war crimes charges, including participation in attacks and involvement in mutilation of bodies. Missing Persons: In Damascus, the family of Majdoleen Al-Qadi marked 12 years since her 2013 disappearance after she was summoned by phone; relatives still have no confirmed fate. Mass Grave Update: A second mass grave was reported in Qara, rural Damascus, with four bodies recovered so far, bringing the total to nine. Civil Defense Response: Syrian Civil Defense said it tackled 181 fires and 19 traffic accidents across the country, with one death and 24 injuries. Heritage Spotlight: Al-Lajat, Syria’s volcanic plateau between Daraa and Sweida, was highlighted again after being listed by ICESCO for its history and nature. Humanitarian Aid: QRCS said its Eid Al-Adha campaign reached 247,344 beneficiaries in Qatar and 13 countries, including Syria.

Lebanon’s Second Airport: Lebanon inaugurated René Mouawad Airport in Qlayaat, Akkar, aiming to start flights within weeks and connect travelers to Istanbul, Mersin and Dubai, with more destinations planned as rehabilitation work begins. Ceasefire Politics in Lebanon: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem doesn’t represent the Lebanese people, warning the ceasefire could remain “on paper” without Hezbollah buy-in. Southern Lebanon Toll: An Israeli strike killed Dr. James George Karam and his two university-aged children as they returned from exams, renewing fears for civilians in border villages. Syria Diplomacy: Egypt is reportedly moving to approve Syria’s new ambassador nominee Mohammad Taha Al-Ahmad after earlier reservations delayed the post. Syria’s Trade and Ports: Latakia port handled over two million tons of cargo in five months, while Amman Chamber of Commerce data showed Syria among key destinations for certificates of origin. Quneitra Incursions: Israeli forces carried out raids and detained a resident during incursions in southern Quneitra countryside, according to local sources. Regional Security: Turkey detained 361 people in nationwide ISIL-linked operations across 39 provinces.

Lebanon Amnesty Push: Lebanon is moving toward its biggest amnesty since the 1975-90 civil war, with a draft law that could replace death sentences and cut life terms, freeing thousands of detainees—while families of fallen soldiers protest and critics warn it will deepen sectarian tensions. Dollarization Anxiety: A new look at how collapsing local currencies drive people to save and spend in dollars, showing how trust in the state erodes when money loses its value. Syrian Prisoner Returns: Morocco repatriated five women from Al-Hol camp in Syria, but about 54 others remain stuck as legal hurdles over marriages and children’s documentation delay further returns. US Immigration Court Ruling: A federal judge struck down Trump-era USCIS policies that blocked asylum, work permits, green cards, and citizenship decisions for people from 39 travel-ban countries, calling the delays unlawful. Regional Travel Warnings: The US embassy urged Americans to reconsider travel across much of the Middle East, keeping Syria and Lebanon at the highest risk level amid heightened tensions. World Bank Roads for Syria Link: The World Bank approved a $900m Iraq roads package aimed at safer corridors connecting Baghdad with Syria and Jordan, boosting regional trade routes.